Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-03-06 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

TOR: 50.9%

BUF: 49.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.80

BUF: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	BUF
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	8	2	0.73
1	BUF	15	1	0.99
2	TOR	11	0	0.54
2	BUF	13	1	0.66
3	TOR	15	2	0.92
3	BUF	7	0	0.30
4	TOR	4	1	0.46
4	BUF	5	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.8 - 3.2