Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-03-07 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

BOS: 60.4%

TOR: 39.6%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.48

TOR: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • BOS at home vs TOR: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	17	1	1.27
1	TOR	11	0	0.29
2	BOS	17	0	1.15
2	TOR	19	0	1.01
3	BOS	11	0	0.36
3	TOR	17	0	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0