Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2024-03-07 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 0 - 6 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 60.2%
WSH: 39.8%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.07
WSH: 3.23
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | PIT | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.750 | — |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PIT at home vs WSH: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | PIT 5 - 3 WSH | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-04-17 | PIT 5 - 2 WSH | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-02-22 | PIT 3 - 8 WSH | WSH | PIT |
| 2025-01-18 | WSH 4 - 1 PIT | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-11-08 | WSH 2 - 4 PIT | PIT | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:51 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 00:30 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 03:16 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 08:50 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 16:21 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 02:13 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 0 - 6 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.1 - 3.2