Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-03-09 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 42.5%

EDM: 57.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.94

EDM: 3.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • BUF at home vs EDM: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	EDM 3 - 4 BUF	BUF	EDM
2025-11-17	BUF 5 - 1 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-03-10	BUF 3 - 2 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-01-25	EDM 3 - 2 BUF	EDM	EDM
2024-03-21	EDM 8 - 3 BUF	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	1	1.15
1	EDM	17	2	1.07
2	BUF	12	0	0.86
2	EDM	15	0	1.02
3	BUF	14	0	0.62
3	EDM	13	0	0.72
4	BUF	5	0	0.52
4	EDM	1	0	0.06
5	BUF	3	2	1.82
5	EDM	3	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.5