Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-03-09 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 5 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 40.5%

PIT: 59.5%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.76

PIT: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BOS at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	BOS
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	BOS
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	14	1	0.86
1	PIT	16	0	0.74
2	BOS	16	0	1.41
2	PIT	15	0	0.99
3	BOS	11	0	0.65
3	PIT	19	1	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 5 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2