Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-03-09 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 53.2%

TOR: 46.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.04

TOR: 3.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • MTL at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	MTL
2025-04-12	TOR 1 - 0 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	10	1	0.77
1	TOR	11	1	0.58
2	MTL	18	0	0.76
2	TOR	13	1	1.10
3	MTL	10	0	0.60
3	TOR	9	2	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.8