Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-03-12 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

OTT: 58.9%

PIT: 41.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.99

PIT: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • OTT at home vs PIT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	OTT 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	OTT
2026-02-02	PIT 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-18	OTT 4 - 0 PIT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-30	PIT 1 - 0 OTT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-11	PIT 0 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	12	0	0.36
1	PIT	15	0	0.89
2	OTT	15	0	1.46
2	PIT	18	1	1.01
3	OTT	18	2	1.44
3	PIT	13	1	1.20
4	OTT	6	1	0.64
4	PIT	2	0	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.0 - 2.7