Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-03-12 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 53.7%

FLA: 46.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.28

FLA: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • DAL at home vs FLA: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	DAL 0 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-11-01	FLA 4 - 3 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-02	FLA 4 - 2 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-01	DAL 4 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2024-03-12	DAL 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	19	1	1.76
1	FLA	12	0	0.74
2	DAL	16	2	1.34
2	FLA	14	0	0.65
3	DAL	8	0	0.59
3	FLA	13	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9