Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-03-14 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

PHI: 49.3%

TOR: 50.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.34

TOR: 4.01

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	15	0	0.69
1	TOR	18	0	1.58
2	PHI	16	1	1.04
2	TOR	13	0	0.99
3	PHI	12	0	0.73
3	TOR	10	0	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.4

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 4.0