Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-03-14 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

CGY: 56.8%

VGK: 43.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.23

VGK: 3.47

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 92% • CGY at home vs VGK: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	CGY
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	18	0	0.84
1	VGK	9	0	0.59
2	CGY	19	0	1.27
2	VGK	13	0	0.82
3	CGY	13	2	1.48
3	VGK	16	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.5