Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-03-16 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 38.5%

BUF: 61.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.96

BUF: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • DET at home vs BUF: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-27	BUF 2 - 5 DET	DET	BUF
2025-11-15	DET 4 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DET	BUF	BUF
2025-03-12	DET 7 - 3 BUF	DET	BUF
2024-12-09	BUF 5 - 6 DET	DET	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	14	0	0.74
1	BUF	15	0	0.74
2	DET	20	1	1.70
2	BUF	12	0	0.65
3	DET	6	1	1.01
3	BUF	13	1	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5