Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions
2024-03-16 • Amerant Bank Arena
Florida Panthers 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
FLA: 60.8%
TBL: 39.2%
Expected Goals
FLA: 3.58
TBL: 2.74
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
FLA
Sergei Bobrovsky - 21-17-1 | 0.871 SV% | 3.13 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | FLA | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.837 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.892 | 0.952 |
| GAA | 2.80 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • FLA at home vs TBL: 5-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | TBL 6 - 1 FLA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-27 | FLA 2 - 4 TBL | TBL | FLA |
| 2025-12-15 | TBL 2 - 5 FLA | FLA | TBL |
| 2025-11-15 | FLA 1 - 3 TBL | TBL | FLA |
| 2025-04-30 | TBL 3 - 6 FLA | FLA | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:20 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 13:21 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 03:02 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:59 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 08:23 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:55 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:08 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:28 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Florida Panthers 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.6 - 2.7