Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-03-16 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

CGY: 57.8%

MTL: 42.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.73

MTL: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • CGY at home vs MTL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	MTL 4 - 1 CGY	MTL	MTL
2025-10-22	CGY 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-08	CGY 1 - 0 MTL	CGY	CGY
2024-11-05	MTL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-03-16	CGY 5 - 2 MTL	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	11	0	0.75
1	MTL	20	0	1.01
2	CGY	13	0	0.67
2	MTL	18	0	0.86
3	CGY	9	0	0.77
3	MTL	16	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 5 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.7 - 3.1