Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-03-16 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes
🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 52.5%
CAR: 47.5%
Expected Goals
TOR: 2.81
CAR: 3.29
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
CAR
Brandon Bussi - 23-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.16 GAA
| Stat | TOR | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.915 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.958 | 0.800 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • TOR at home vs CAR: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | CAR 1 - 5 TOR | TOR | CAR |
| 2025-11-09 | TOR 4 - 5 CAR | CAR | TOR |
| 2025-04-13 | CAR 1 - 4 TOR | TOR | CAR |
| 2025-02-22 | TOR 6 - 3 CAR | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-01-09 | CAR 6 - 3 TOR | CAR | CAR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 04:47 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 06:27 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 12:03 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 13:27 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 19:57 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 02:55 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 18:28 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:53 | TOR | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes
Expected: 2.8 - 3.3