Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-03-16 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

Win Probability

TOR: 38.8%

CAR: 61.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.11

CAR: 3.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs CAR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	1	0.86
1	CAR	13	0	0.82
2	TOR	19	1	1.60
2	CAR	20	0	1.45
3	TOR	14	1	1.93
3	CAR	22	0	1.40
4	TOR	10	0	1.30
4	CAR	3	0	0.23
5	TOR	3	0	0.22
5	CAR	3	1	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.1 - 3.9