Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2024-03-16 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 53.2%

COL: 46.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.23

COL: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • EDM at home vs COL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	EDM	14	0.60
1	COL	10	0.34
2	EDM	13	1.06
2	COL	22	1.28
3	EDM	14	1.04
3	COL	22	1.34
4	EDM	4	0.41
4	COL	4	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4