New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-03-17 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 1 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

VGK: 62.6%

NJD: 37.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.49

NJD: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs NJD: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-17	VGK 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	VGK
2025-12-05	NJD 0 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-03-02	VGK 2 - 0 NJD	VGK	VGK
2025-02-06	NJD 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-03-17	VGK 3 - 1 NJD	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	17	0	0.99
1	NJD	10	0	0.53
2	VGK	16	0	1.07
2	NJD	10	0	0.58
3	VGK	15	1	1.49
3	NJD	14	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 1 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8