Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-03-19 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

PHI: 52.6%

TOR: 47.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.47

TOR: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	0.53
1	TOR	13	0	0.43
2	PHI	20	0	1.17
2	TOR	17	1	1.15
3	PHI	8	0	0.51
3	TOR	17	1	1.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0