Montreal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2024-03-19 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

EDM: 74.9%

MTL: 25.1%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.62

MTL: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • EDM at home vs MTL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-14	MTL 4 - 1 EDM	MTL	MTL
2025-10-23	EDM 6 - 5 MTL	EDM	EDM
2025-03-06	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM
2024-11-18	MTL 3 - 0 EDM	MTL	EDM
2024-03-19	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	9	1	0.80
1	MTL	16	2	1.29
2	EDM	10	2	1.44
2	MTL	12	0	0.77
3	EDM	12	0	1.04
3	MTL	13	0	0.80
4	EDM	7	0	0.79
4	MTL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.6 - 2.5