Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-03-19 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

VGK: 46.9%

TBL: 53.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.08

TBL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-06	VGK 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	VGK
2025-10-26	TBL 2 - 1 VGK	TBL	TBL
2025-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 TBL	VGK	VGK
2024-10-17	TBL 4 - 3 VGK	TBL	VGK
2024-03-19	VGK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	9	0	0.54
1	TBL	11	3	0.80
2	VGK	14	0	0.49
2	TBL	5	0	0.23
3	VGK	20	0	0.95
3	TBL	9	1	1.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3