Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2024-03-19 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 56.7%
TBL: 43.3%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.09
TBL: 3.06
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | VGK | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.922 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs TBL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | VGK 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | VGK |
| 2025-10-26 | TBL 2 - 1 VGK | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-23 | VGK 4 - 2 TBL | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-10-17 | TBL 4 - 3 VGK | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-03-19 | VGK 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:14 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 07:00 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 10:37 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:52 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 04:52 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:16 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 12:14 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:51 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.1 - 3.1