Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-03-20 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 57.8%

TOR: 42.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.92

TOR: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • WSH at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	1	1.41
1	TOR	10	0	0.40
2	WSH	14	0	0.86
2	TOR	19	0	0.93
3	WSH	9	0	0.52
3	TOR	14	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3