New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-03-21 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 3 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 40.8%

NYI: 59.2%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.53

NYI: 3.64

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • DET at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	DET 3 - 2 NYI	DET	DET
2025-11-20	DET 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-10-23	NYI 7 - 2 DET	NYI	NYI
2024-11-25	NYI 2 - 4 DET	DET	NYI
2024-11-21	DET 2 - 1 NYI	DET	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	11	0	0.55
1	NYI	12	0	0.58
2	DET	11	1	1.48
2	NYI	13	0	0.74
3	DET	9	1	1.12
3	NYI	23	1	1.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.5 - 3.6