Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2024-03-21 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

SJS: 37.0%

TBL: 63.0%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.99

TBL: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • SJS at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	TBL 4 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2026-01-03	SJS 3 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-01-02	SJS 2 - 1 TBL	SJS	TBL
2024-12-05	TBL 8 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2024-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	9	0	0.65
1	TBL	10	0	0.85
2	SJS	13	0	0.63
2	TBL	9	0	0.52
3	SJS	9	1	0.86
3	TBL	13	1	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1