Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-03-22 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

DAL: 55.6%

PIT: 44.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.61

PIT: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	PIT 3 - 6 DAL	DAL	PIT
2025-12-07	DAL 3 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL
2025-04-05	DAL 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	DAL
2024-11-11	PIT 1 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-22	DAL 4 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	1	0.94
1	PIT	11	0	0.57
2	DAL	11	1	0.92
2	PIT	11	0	0.58
3	DAL	14	3	2.46
3	PIT	12	2	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.6 - 3.5