Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-03-23 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 40.9%

EDM: 59.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.97

EDM: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs EDM: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	EDM 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	EDM
2025-12-13	TOR 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-02-01	EDM 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	EDM
2024-11-16	TOR 4 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM
2024-03-23	TOR 6 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	17	1	0.92
1	EDM	9	1	0.60
2	TOR	16	0	0.87
2	EDM	21	0	1.18
3	TOR	7	1	1.10
3	EDM	24	1	1.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2