Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2024-03-23 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

LAK: 46.2%

TBL: 53.8%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.42

TBL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • LAK at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-01	LAK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	LAK
2025-12-18	TBL 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	TBL
2025-01-30	TBL 3 - 0 LAK	TBL	TBL
2025-01-04	LAK 2 - 1 TBL	LAK	LAK
2024-03-23	LAK 4 - 3 TBL	LAK	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	10	0	0.82
1	TBL	15	2	1.87
2	LAK	12	1	1.43
2	TBL	16	1	0.95
3	LAK	8	0	0.36
3	TBL	15	0	0.92
4	LAK	1	0	0.11
4	TBL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1