Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2024-03-24 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 60.7%

TBL: 39.3%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.08

TBL: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • ANA at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	ANA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-25	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-16	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-05	ANA 4 - 1 TBL	ANA	ANA
2024-03-24	ANA 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	11	1	1.08
1	TBL	8	0	0.42
2	ANA	14	0	0.96
2	TBL	13	0	0.91
3	ANA	13	0	0.58
3	TBL	16	1	1.11
4	ANA	0	0	0.00
4	TBL	2	0	0.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3