Buffalo Sabres at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-03-24 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

CGY: 49.3%

BUF: 50.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.45

BUF: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs BUF: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-08	CGY 7 - 4 BUF	CGY	CGY
2025-11-19	BUF 2 - 6 CGY	CGY	BUF
2025-01-23	CGY 5 - 2 BUF	CGY	CGY
2024-11-09	BUF 3 - 2 CGY	BUF	BUF
2024-03-24	CGY 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	0.54
1	BUF	16	1	0.94
2	CGY	20	0	0.91
2	BUF	12	0	0.91
3	CGY	16	0	0.81
3	BUF	13	4	1.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9