New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-03-26 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 53.6%

NJD: 46.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.15

NJD: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs NJD: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	TOR
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	TOR
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	TOR
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	33	1	1.90
1	NJD	11	0	0.87
2	TOR	11	0	0.63
2	NJD	14	0	1.10
3	TOR	14	1	1.06
3	NJD	9	2	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1