Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2024-03-26 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (74% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 73.7%

MTL: 26.3%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.67

MTL: 2.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MTL 7 - 3 COL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-29	COL 7 - 2 MTL	COL	COL
2025-03-22	MTL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-04	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL
2024-03-26	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	20	1	1.57
1	MTL	15	0	1.25
2	COL	14	0	0.76
2	MTL	10	0	0.58
3	COL	12	0	0.78
3	MTL	12	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 73.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 7.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.7 - 2.7