Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-03-28 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

TOR: 52.5%

WSH: 47.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.24

WSH: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • TOR at home vs WSH: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	23	0	1.31
1	WSH	13	0	0.67
2	TOR	18	3	1.57
2	WSH	13	0	0.49
3	TOR	19	0	1.18
3	WSH	8	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1