Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2024-03-28 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 57.5%

VGK: 42.5%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.34

VGK: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WPG at home vs VGK: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	VGK 6 - 2 WPG	VGK	VGK
2026-03-24	WPG 4 - 1 VGK	WPG	VGK
2026-01-06	WPG 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-03	VGK 0 - 4 WPG	WPG	VGK
2024-12-12	WPG 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	14	1	0.81
1	VGK	20	0	1.05
2	WPG	24	0	1.28
2	VGK	8	0	0.44
3	WPG	20	1	1.23
3	VGK	12	2	2.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0