Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions
2024-03-28 • Canada Life Centre
Winnipeg Jets 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WPG: 56.3%
VGK: 43.7%
Expected Goals
WPG: 3.39
VGK: 3.00
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | WPG | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.871 | — |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 29% • WPG at home vs VGK: 0-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | WPG 3 - 4 VGK | VGK | WPG |
| 2025-04-03 | VGK 0 - 4 WPG | WPG | VGK |
| 2024-12-12 | WPG 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | WPG |
| 2024-11-29 | VGK 4 - 3 WPG | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-03-28 | WPG 1 - 4 VGK | VGK | WPG |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:56 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 03:31 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 14:31 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 18:15 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 19:26 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Winnipeg Jets 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.4 - 3.0