New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2024-03-28 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 New York Rangers
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 54.4%
NYR: 45.6%
Expected Goals
COL: 2.84
NYR: 2.95
Total Goals
Median: 5.3
Over 5.5: 48%
Over 6.5: 36%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
| Stat | COL | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.942 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.842 | 0.907 |
| GAA | 2.13 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs NYR: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | NYR 2 - 3 COL | COL | NYR |
| 2025-11-20 | COL 6 - 3 NYR | COL | COL |
| 2025-01-26 | NYR 4 - 5 COL | COL | NYR |
| 2025-01-14 | COL 3 - 2 NYR | COL | COL |
| 2024-03-28 | COL 2 - 3 NYR | NYR | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 19:27 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 02:59 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:35 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 12:47 | COL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | COL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 New York Rangers
Expected: 2.8 - 2.9