Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2024-03-30 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Boston Bruins
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 56.5%
BOS: 43.5%
Expected Goals
WSH: 2.68
BOS: 2.84
Total Goals
Median: 5.1
Over 5.5: 47%
Over 6.5: 32%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 26-20-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.43 GAA
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 30-15-4 | 0.907 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | WSH | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.903 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.907 | 0.925 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.929 | 0.954 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.84 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • WSH at home vs BOS: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | WSH 2 - 3 BOS | BOS | WSH |
| 2026-03-07 | BOS 3 - 1 WSH | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-10-08 | WSH 1 - 3 BOS | BOS | WSH |
| 2025-04-01 | BOS 3 - 4 WSH | WSH | BOS |
| 2024-12-31 | WSH 3 - 1 BOS | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:47 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 01:20 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 02:22 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 14:03 | WSH | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | WSH | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | WSH | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | WSH | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | WSH | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Boston Bruins
Expected: 2.7 - 2.8
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