Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2024-04-01 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 59.7%

PIT: 40.3%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.46

PIT: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • NYR at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	14	0	0.53
1	PIT	10	1	1.06
2	NYR	20	1	1.30
2	PIT	11	0	0.61
3	NYR	13	0	0.55
3	PIT	14	2	1.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8