Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-04-01 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 67.0%

DET: 33.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.71

DET: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs DET: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	22	1	1.39
1	DET	13	0	0.94
2	TBL	14	0	0.68
2	DET	16	0	0.97
3	TBL	17	0	1.37
3	DET	13	2	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8