Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-04-03 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 0 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 44.0%

EDM: 56.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.32

EDM: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • DAL at home vs EDM: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	19	1	1.56
1	EDM	23	0	1.20
2	DAL	26	1	2.02
2	EDM	13	0	0.62
3	DAL	9	0	0.22
3	EDM	13	0	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 0 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3