Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2024-04-04 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 52.8%
PIT: 47.2%
Expected Goals
WSH: 2.39
PIT: 3.05
Total Goals
Median: 5.1
Over 5.5: 46%
Over 6.5: 31%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | WSH | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.750 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WSH at home vs PIT: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | PIT 5 - 3 WSH | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-04-17 | PIT 5 - 2 WSH | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-02-22 | PIT 3 - 8 WSH | WSH | PIT |
| 2025-01-18 | WSH 4 - 1 PIT | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-11-08 | WSH 2 - 4 PIT | PIT | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:49 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 11:03 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 09:08 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 06:02 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 17:23 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.4
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 2.4 - 3.1