Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-04-04 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 51.7%

PIT: 48.3%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.33

PIT: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • WSH at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	21	1	1.31
1	PIT	10	0	0.39
2	WSH	8	0	0.17
2	PIT	16	0	0.78
3	WSH	19	1	1.37
3	PIT	11	2	1.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9