Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-04-05 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 49.5%

PHI: 50.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.52

PHI: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs PHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	PHI
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	9	0	0.49
1	PHI	18	1	1.52
2	BUF	12	0	0.54
2	PHI	18	0	0.78
3	BUF	14	6	3.20
3	PHI	19	0	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1