Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-04-05 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 60.6%
PHI: 39.4%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.56
PHI: 3.38
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 72%
Over 6.5: 58%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | BUF | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.918 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.889 | 0.667 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • BUF at home vs PHI: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | BUF 5 - 2 PHI | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-12-18 | BUF 5 - 3 PHI | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-12-03 | PHI 5 - 2 BUF | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-04-17 | BUF 5 - 4 PHI | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-29 | PHI 7 - 4 BUF | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:01 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 09:07 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 14:51 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 19:54 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 09:19 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 13:59 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 60.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.9
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.6 - 3.4