Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-04-06 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 52.3%

EDM: 47.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.01

EDM: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • CGY at home vs EDM: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	CGY
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	EDM
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	0.67
1	EDM	18	0	1.48
2	CGY	25	0	1.10
2	EDM	8	1	0.88
3	CGY	11	0	0.63
3	EDM	13	2	2.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3