Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2024-04-07 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 57.9%
OTT: 42.1%
Expected Goals
WSH: 2.65
OTT: 2.85
Total Goals
Median: 5.6
Over 5.5: 51%
Over 6.5: 34%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | WSH | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.882 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.875 | 0.923 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • WSH at home vs OTT: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | OTT 4 - 3 WSH | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-10-25 | WSH 1 - 7 OTT | OTT | WSH |
| 2025-03-03 | WSH 5 - 4 OTT | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-01-30 | OTT 5 - 4 WSH | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-01-16 | OTT 0 - 1 WSH | WSH | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:43 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 05:40 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 17:10 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 12:49 | WSH | Goal |
| 4 | 00:41 | OTT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 2.7 - 2.8