Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-04-07 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 59.4%

OTT: 40.6%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.58

OTT: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • WSH at home vs OTT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	OTT
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	0	0.45
1	OTT	19	1	0.82
2	WSH	16	0	0.68
2	OTT	10	0	0.69
3	WSH	18	2	1.29
3	OTT	15	2	1.43
4	WSH	0	0	0.00
4	OTT	1	0	0.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8