Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2024-04-07 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 7 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 64.8%

DAL: 35.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 2.99

DAL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	17	1	1.17
1	DAL	21	0	1.35
2	COL	20	1	1.45
2	DAL	24	2	2.40
3	COL	16	1	1.05
3	DAL	10	5	2.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 7 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9