Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-04-08 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 49.6%

PIT: 50.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.39

PIT: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs PIT: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	PIT
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.71
1	PIT	18	0	1.34
2	TOR	10	0	0.74
2	PIT	21	1	1.60
3	TOR	13	0	0.37
3	PIT	21	1	1.34
4	TOR	1	0	0.18
4	PIT	1	0	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1