Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions
2024-04-09 • Prudential Center
New Jersey Devils 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NJD: 59.2%
TOR: 40.8%
Expected Goals
NJD: 3.09
TOR: 3.13
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 15-13-1 | 0.882 SV% | 3.20 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | NJD | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.884 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.899 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.897 | 1.000 |
| GAA | 3.32 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • NJD at home vs TOR: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | TOR 4 - 0 NJD | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-10-21 | TOR 2 - 5 NJD | NJD | TOR |
| 2025-01-16 | TOR 4 - 3 NJD | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-12-10 | NJD 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | NJD |
| 2024-10-10 | NJD 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:56 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 14:25 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 05:17 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 15:00 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 15:09 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 07:33 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 18:47 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
New Jersey Devils 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.1 - 3.1