Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-04-09 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

DAL: 54.3%

BUF: 45.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.32

BUF: 3.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs BUF: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	BUF 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	BUF
2025-12-31	DAL 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	DAL
2024-12-31	DAL 4 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL
2024-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DAL	BUF	BUF
2024-04-09	DAL 3 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	1	0.74
1	BUF	9	0	0.47
2	DAL	14	0	0.65
2	BUF	10	0	0.48
3	DAL	12	2	1.37
3	BUF	12	1	0.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.3 - 3.7