Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-04-11 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

BUF: 55.5%

WSH: 44.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.38

WSH: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BUF at home vs WSH: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	BUF
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	8	0	0.34
1	WSH	21	1	1.33
2	BUF	9	0	0.66
2	WSH	4	0	0.16
3	BUF	14	4	2.47
3	WSH	18	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9