Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2024-04-11 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 57.6%
PHI: 42.4%
Expected Goals
NYR: 2.53
PHI: 3.48
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | NYR | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.942 | 0.918 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.875 | — |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • NYR at home vs PHI: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | NYR | ||
| 2026-01-17 | PHI 3 - 6 NYR | NYR | PHI |
| 2025-12-20 | NYR 5 - 4 PHI | NYR | NYR |
| 2025-04-09 | NYR 5 - 8 PHI | PHI | NYR |
| 2025-01-23 | NYR 6 - 1 PHI | NYR | NYR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:21 | PHI | Goal |
| 1 | 18:19 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 03:29 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 19:13 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 05:56 | PHI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
New York Rangers 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 2.5 - 3.5