Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-04-11 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 50.5%

OTT: 49.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.43

OTT: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TBL at home vs OTT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	OTT
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	1	0.77
1	OTT	8	0	0.25
2	TBL	12	2	1.65
2	OTT	13	2	1.34
3	TBL	7	0	0.51
3	OTT	23	1	1.42
4	TBL	5	0	0.42
4	OTT	4	0	0.25
5	TBL	3	0	0.23
5	OTT	2	1	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1