Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-04-11 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 59.0%
OTT: 41.0%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.37
OTT: 2.94
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | TBL | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.882 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.879 | 0.840 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs OTT: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-09 | TBL 4 - 5 OTT | OTT | TBL |
| 2025-04-03 | OTT 2 - 1 TBL | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-02-06 | TBL 5 - 1 OTT | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-02-04 | TBL 4 - 3 OTT | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-10-19 | OTT 5 - 4 TBL | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:45 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 09:45 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 12:56 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 02:11 | TBL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.4 - 2.9