New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-04-11 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 6 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 55.7%

NJD: 44.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.24

NJD: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs NJD: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	TOR
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	TOR
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	TOR
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	16	1	1.28
1	NJD	11	0	0.65
2	TOR	18	2	2.01
2	NJD	10	0	0.62
3	TOR	16	1	1.01
3	NJD	10	0	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 6 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1