Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-04-11 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

NYI: 53.7%

MTL: 46.3%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.89

MTL: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYI at home vs MTL: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	MTL
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	MTL
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	13	0	0.56
1	MTL	7	1	0.51
2	NYI	23	1	1.92
2	MTL	7	0	0.30
3	NYI	13	0	0.61
3	MTL	6	0	0.51
4	NYI	2	0	0.06
4	MTL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3