Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-04-13 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

WSH: 52.8%

TBL: 47.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.96

TBL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	WSH
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	1	0.75
1	TBL	15	2	0.88
2	WSH	15	1	1.43
2	TBL	15	0	1.03
3	WSH	15	1	1.46
3	TBL	14	2	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9